96th Academy Awards predictions

The Oscars are neither a good judge of cinema nor a particularly entertaining awards telecast. And yet I make predictions and watch them every year without fail. Below are my predictions for what will win, what should win, and what deserved a nomination. Regrettably I saw nearly none of the nominees in the three shorts categories and the documentary category, so those predictions are totally vibes based. On the other hand I have seen all but one¹ of the BP nominees, so I feel pretty in the loop on the whole.

| Category | Will win | Should win | Should have been nominated | | — | — | — | — | | Picture | Oppenheimer | The Holdovers | Asteroid City | | Director | Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer | Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon | Celine Song – Past Lives | | Lead Actress | Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon | Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon | Natalie Portman – May December | | Lead Actor | Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer | Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers | Jason Schwartzman – Asteroid City | | Supporting Actress | Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers | Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers | Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest | | Supporting Actor | Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer | Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer | Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry | | Original Screenplay | Anatomy of a Fall | The Holdovers | Asteroid City | | Adapted Screenplay | American Fiction | Oppenheimer | The Killer | | Cinematography | Oppenheimer | Oppenheimer | Asteroid City | | Editing | Oppenheimer | Killers of the Flower Moon | The Killer | | Original Score | Oppenheimer | Oppenheimer | The Boy and the Heron | | Original Song | “What Was I Made For?” – Barbie | “What Was I Made For?” – Barbie | “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” – Asteroid City | | Animated Feature | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | The Boy and the Heron | N/A | | International Film | The Zone of Interest | The Zone of Interest | The Boy and the Heron | | Documentary Feature | 20 Days in Mariupol | N/A | The History of the Minnesota Vikings | | Documentary Short | The ABCs of Book Banning | N/A | N/A | | Live Action Short | The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar | The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar | The Rat Catcher | | Animated Short | War is Over! | N/A | N/A | | Sound | Oppenheimer | The Zone of Interest | The Killer | | Production Design | Poor Things | Barbie | Asteroid City | | Makeup and Hairstyling | Maestro | Poor Things | BlackBerry | | Costume Design | Barbie | Poor Things | Asteroid City | | Visual Effects | Godzilla Minus One | Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | Killers of the Flower Moon |

My year-end list ¶

While we’re here I might as well drop my top ten list for 2023. There are many like it, but this one is mine.

1. Asteroid City (W. Anderson)
2. The Holdovers (Payne)
3. The Zone of Interest (Glazer)
4. The Boy and the Heron (Miyazaki)
5. The History of the Minnesota Vikings (Bois)
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (Scorsese)
7. The Killer (Fincher)
8. Oppenheimer (Nolan)
9. May December (Haynes)
10. Past Lives (Song)

Update, 2024-03-11: I was 17/23 with my predictions, failing on lead actress, documentary short, sound, makeup and hairstyling, and costume design, and animated feature. The win by The Boy and the Heron in that last category was a happy surprise!